The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index declined to 105.80 for the combined October and November 2025 reading. At the same time, the unemployment rate has reached a four year high of 4.6 percent, another sign of labor market weakness.
This data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has a recent history of revising earlier estimates. Estimating the labor market in real time is not easy. Still, the overall direction is clear. This is the most difficult job market we have seen since the onset of COVID in 2020.
So the big question is whether things will get better in 2026.
As an interview and career coach, I have worked with hundreds of clients over the past six months across FAANG companies, venture backed startups, private equity owned firms, family enterprises, and traditional industries across multiple geographic regions (US, Canada, EU and Asia). Based on what I am seeing on the ground, here is my outlook for the 2026 job market.
First, for the most coveted FAANG opportunities, the market will likely remain depressed. Over the past few years, nearly all FAANG companies with the exception of Apple have gone through repeated rounds of layoffs. While AI is often cited as the reason, the bigger issue is over hiring during COVID and the long process of unwinding that excess.
Apple avoided this problem due to disciplined leadership. Other companies did not. A former Amazon finance director recently told me the internal environment there has become increasingly unbearable. Amazon hired too aggressively during COVID and is still trying to correct course.
AI is a once in a generation technological shift and we are near the peak of the hype cycle. But AI is not the primary driver of FAANG layoffs.
That said, FAANG companies are still hiring. They are simply hiring very selectively and reallocating investment into different areas. Competition will remain fierce. If you are targeting FAANG in 2026, preparation is non negotiable. In this market, opportunities favor the overprepared.
The one clear exception is deep AI talent with PhD level training and highly specialized expertise. These roles exist and the compensation stories are real. However, this is a very small niche and I believe there is already significant over investment. I am skeptical that some of these compensation levels are sustainable over the long term.
Second, opportunities are emerging in more traditional industries. Healthcare, energy, consumer packaged goods, and manufacturing companies tend to have steadier businesses. They are not as glamorous as big tech and typically pay less, but they are hiring.
If you are in the job market, I strongly recommend expanding your search beyond FAANG. Apply to traditional industry companies in addition to big tech, not instead of it.
Third, return to office and location requirements are becoming stricter. More employers are requiring three, four, or even five days in the office. At the same time, many roles in traditional industries are not located in San Francisco, New York, or Southern California. They are in the Midwest, the South, or cities like Atlanta.
Candidates are increasingly forced to make tradeoffs. Relocation, long commutes, or split week travel are becoming more common. In today’s environment, it is very difficult to optimize job content, compensation, and location at the same time.
For most people, success means choosing two and being flexible on the third. This requires honest prioritization. What is truly non negotiable for you, and what are you willing to compromise on.
Fourth, my conviction about AI’s impact on work has increased over the past six months. We are about two years into the AI hype cycle and the parallels to the dot com era are becoming clearer. In 1999, many believed the internet would instantly transform everything. In reality, it took decades.
I joined a heavily funded startup in 1999 with a business model similar to today’s Shopify. It burned through over one hundred million dollars and failed. Shopify succeeded more than fifteen years later with essentially the same idea.
Today, I can easily identify content written by AI and I skip it. I use AI coding tools, but I still review logic, architecture, and security carefully. As Jensen Huang put it, you are not going to lose your job to AI, but you may lose your job to someone who knows how to use AI.
This does not mean you should panic. As Mark Twain once said, the news of my death is greatly exaggerated. AI will not replace everyone, but it is reshaping roles.
What I am seeing is that entry level software roles are being hit the hardest. As companies reduce engineering headcount, they also need fewer product managers and program managers. Engineers need to develop fluency with AI tools, as well as stronger UI, UX, and customer facing skills. Product managers need deeper technical and AI literacy.
The boundary between engineering and product is blurring. Intermediary roles are under the most pressure, particularly mid level product management. Strategic product leaders will still be valuable, but companies will need fewer of them.
Fifth, instability is becoming the new normal. Given economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and debt cycles, volatility in the job market is likely to persist. Expect unpredictability and periodic layoffs, even at strong companies.
This is why I increasingly advocate for portfolio careers and side hustles. Relying on a single income stream is riskier than it used to be.
If you want to build a portfolio career, ignore the advice to follow your passion. That is some of the worst career advice out there. Instead, look for the intersection of three things. What you enjoy doing, what you can become truly excellent at, and what can generate meaningful income.
Start by building a small audience of around one thousand people on a single platform. Offer consulting or coaching services. Then productize what you do so it can scale. Iterate, refine, and repeat.
This is not easy and it takes time and focus, but it is worth the effort.
If you want to start 2026 strong in your job search or career progression, now is the time to act. I am offering a limited time New Year New Job interview preparation package for those who sign up by December 31, 2026.
The package includes
- resume and LinkedIn profile review
- target employer list definition
- five one on one interview preparation sessions covering behavioral, domain, and technical topics
- unlimited email based consultation
- and compensation negotiation support.
- The price is $1,999, discounted from the regular price of $2,500 (20% discount).
If you are interested, fill out the form or email andrew@nailyourjobinterview.com to schedule a FREE 15-minute consultation.